Thursday, April 4, 2013

Looking for day when Mexico's underworld is violence-free? Try looking back.

Since the 1980s Mexico's criminal organizations have become increasingly globalized and sophisticated, but almost a century ago they were largely family organizations shipping bootleg liquor to the US.

By Patrick Corcoran,?InSight Crime / April 3, 2013

? InSight Crime researches, analyzes, and investigates organized crime in the Americas. Find all of Patrick Corcoran's research here.

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[This article is adapted from a longer research paper appearing in a recent edition of the journal?Trends in Organized Crime.]

Mexico?s battles with drug trafficking have been a constant in the country?s modern history, but the activities and organization of the criminal groups operating in the clandestine industry have been in a state of constant flux. That flux, which continues today, lies at the heart of Mexico's violence.

During the 20th century and into the 21st, Mexico?s criminal organizations have grown increasingly sophisticated, globalized, and diversified. Whereas 90 years ago they were largely family organizations shipping marijuana and bootleg liquor to the US, today they traffic any number of products to and from nations in all four corners of the globe.

Over the course of the same period, Mexico?s criminal gangs also underwent a related process of consolidation and growth that peaked in the 1980s. The family operations gave way to steadily larger, wealthier criminal organizations, culminating in the Guadalajara Cartel, run by Miguel Angel Felix Gallardo, that controlled drug trafficking in most of Mexico during the presidency of Miguel de la Madrid. Since then, the trend has been the opposite: a breakup of the larger organizations, and the rise of regional local challengers to their supremacy. The chaos that followed has engulfed a nation.

Premodern groups

Mexico?s smuggling networks have emerged as an unfortunate emblem of the nation only relatively recently, but they have existed for more than a century. Initially, they were not dedicated to methamphetamine and cocaine, two of the drugs that currently offer the highest profit margins, but rather opium, and later marijuana. These groups, which first began to emerge toward the end of the 19th century, were initially not seen as a major public security threat. Indeed, newspaper reports at the time detail the concern for opium users, not bloodshed attached to feeding the market.

These groups were largely family-based. In the case of the opium traffickers, these groups were originally concentrated among the Chinese immigrants populated across Mexico?s northern region, especially northwestern states like Sinaloa. Reports from the era indicate that the marijuana production, on the other hand, was not especially associated with Chinese immigrants, and marijuana traffickers remained largely small-time operations that continued to be built around local family ties. One example of such an organization was that of Maria Dolores Estevez, or Lola la Chata, as she was more commonly known. Lola and her clan trafficked in vice (especially marijuana) in Juarez for some 30 years in the middle of the 20th century, though without ever achieving the wealth or international notoriety of today?s groups.

But if the early groups had a lesser impact on the state of the nation than today?s do, they were still instrumental in setting the stage for the future development of Mexico?s trafficking organizations. The groups that emerged in that period, while far different from their future iteration, spawned certain characteristics that would be vital to their coming growth.

First, they created smuggling networks in and out of the remote Sierra Madre Occidental, which lies along the convergence of drug-producing states Chihuahua, Durango, and Sinaloa. These states have remained home to the most powerful organizations ever since, and have birthed the nation?s most notorious traffickers. The tendency toward familial link in drug trafficking also remains very common today -- see, for instance, the Beltran Leyva Organization -- although the complexity of trafficking today requires any criminal group to branch out beyond blood ties.

The early groups also developed a capacity to slip past the US border, feeding the market for bootleg alcohol (during prohibition), marijuana, and opium. Since the US market for illegal drugs was later to become the most lucrative in the world, this gave Mexican traffickers the most sought-after job skills in the industry.

Furthermore, these early 20th century groups began to develop links to the political system, especially under the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which emerged from the embers of the Mexican Revolution and dominated the nation?s governance until 2000. For instance, a major Chinese-Mexican trafficker in the 1930s was Antonio Wong Yin, a close friend of the mayor of Torreon (where he was based), the governor of Coahuila (which houses Torreon), and the army general charged with controlling the region. Such political support for traffickers, which are eerily similar to the stories of corruption that periodically emerge in the Mexican media today, was not uncommon.

Because Mexican groups thrive in large part with the support or tolerance of government agents, these early inroads from the forerunners of the political system were priceless, both at the time and as the industry grew.

The internationalization of Mexican crime

The introduction of cocaine to the US drug market in the 1970s and 1980s changed the circumstances dramatically for Mexico?s drug traffickers. Most important, the profit margins exploded; a recent report from the International Crisis Group referred to a 50-fold price discrepancy for a kilo of cocaine in Colombia compared with the same kilo in the US, from $2,400 to $120,000. Today?s substantial divergences were presumably even more yawning four decades ago, as US prices for cocaine have spent most of the meantime in decline.

Nothing like those profits was available from marijuana trafficking. As a consequence, successful Mexican cocaine smugglers were able to accumulate far more wealth than their criminal ancestors. The tendency was furthered as Mexican gangs, in the late 1980s and early 1990s, began to insist on payment not in cash but in product from their South American partners; at that point they were no longer subcontractors but rather wholesalers, with exploding revenues to match. This shift upended the power equilibrium between the traffickers and their government sponsors; the political system had an increasingly difficult time administering unruly gangsters.

The government, however, remained intimately involved, even as it lost some degree of control. Traffickers had deep relations with the political and security apparatus in Mexico; many of the most notorious capos, such as Miguel Angel Felix Gallardo, and Juan Jose Esparragoza, alias "El Azul," were former police officers. A parade of high-ranking government officials, from former Federal Police Commander Guillermo Gonzalez Calderoni, who was reportedly a favorite of President Carlos Salinas in the 1980s and 1990s, to General Jesus Gutierrez Rebollo, the new drug czar who was found to be on the Juarez Cartel payroll in 1997 (and made famous in the movie "Traffic"), have been discovered working for the groups that they are meant to attack. Such arrests, to say nothing of the rumors surrounding officials who are never formally accused, continue to the present day.

Another important shift was toward a more international system. With cocaine the most important substance in the industry, the Mexicans could no longer rely only on their connections within their country and at the border to do business. Ties to cocaine producers in South American nations like Peru, Bolivia, and especially Colombia became essential. This added another several steps to the supply chain, and made feeding the US market a more complex endeavor. A globalized approach became a necessity.

Largely in response to this new environment, Mexican groups themselves grew more sophisticated and more complex, pioneering new methods of airborne and maritime smuggling. They also shifted toward a more hegemonic operational model; the model of a small family firm directing their operation from a marginal Mexico City suburb or barrio in Juarez was no longer viable. Such smaller groups were absorbed or pushed out by new hegemons, which controlled entire regions and coopted public officials on a growing scale. Thus, control of the proverbial "plaza," or trafficking corridor, became a requisite.?

The best example of the new hegemonic model was the Guadalajara Cartel of the aforementioned Felix Gallardo. Originally a police officer and governor?s bodyguard from Sinaloa, Felix Gallardo and his crew moved south to Guadalajara in the 1970s in response to Operation Condor, in which the Mexican army launched a ferocious eradication campaign in the Sierra Madre mountain range. From Guadalajara, he was partnered with Colombian traffickers like Pablo Escobar, and became Escobar's most important Mexico associate. He also came to dominate the underworld in much of his country; Felix Gallardo and his subordinates controlled contraband within most of Mexico?s Pacific Coast and its US border.

The groups of today

The Mexican criminal organizations of today differ from those of Felix Gallardo?s era, and even more so from their predecessors a century ago. The most important factor is that the trend toward consolidation ended with Felix Gallardo. Following his arrest in 1989, the boss reportedly divided up most of Mexico and handed out parcels to his underlings, so as to prevent a breakup of the organization he had built. However, the gambit ? which may be apocryphal; Felix Gallardo has told reporters that he had nothing to do with it ? essentially failed. What had been the Guadalajara Cartel devolved, broadly speaking, into the Tijuana and Juarez Cartels, which were mortal enemies through the 1990s, despite their shared roots. These groups in turn, spawned a handful of further competing organizations, such as the Sinaloa Cartel, the Beltran Leyva Organization, and, in recent years, the Jalisco Cartel - New Generation.

That is, the splinter groups have given birth to splinter groups. The weakness of the remaining groups have encouraged other upstarts to rise up and challenge the existing bosses, turning the process of atomization, as it is often called, into a vicious cycle. Consequently, no recent group has ever matched Felix Gallardo?s territorial control, nor does it appear likely that any one ever will.

This cycle has been a significant driver of violence. The rivalries between the new gangs are in and of themselves violent contests. Tens of thousands have died thanks to disputes between the Gulf Cartel and the Zetas, for example, and between the Juarez Cartel and the Sinaloa Cartel. The problem is worsened because the fallen capos are often replaced not by businessmen but rather hit men, whose natural inclination is toward violence. Today?s groups also suffer from a greater degree of internal instability; as InSight Crime has reported about the Zetas in recent years, amid a context of constant criminal warfare and uneven cash flows, violent subordinates are often tempted to ignore or challenge their bosses.

Today?s gangs are far more reliant on alternative sources of income, beyond drug trafficking. These include oil theft, extortion, kidnapping, human smuggling, robbery, and pirate merchandising. In all likelihood, the revenues of these crimes collectively amount to no more than a few billion dollars a year, but they impose a greater cost on the society as a whole. A successful international drug deal imposes no direct cost on the community at large, but a kidnapper nearly always targets the most vulnerable. This is also true for extortion, which, if common enough, amounts to a disincentive against success for entrepreneurs.

Finally, the groups today no longer unquestionably subordinate the state. For all his power, Felix Gallardo ultimately answered to the political system. When the federal government decided to bring him down, it had no problem in finding him and incarcerating him for life. (According to accounts of his arrest, when he saw the Police Commander Gonzalez Calderoni just before his arrest, Felix Gallardo greeted him as a friend coming to visit.)

Today, this is no longer the case. The increased revenues from cocaine trafficking, discussed above, has contributed to this, and is an important part of the story, but developments within Mexico?s political system are just as important. Mexico?s criminal organizations are weaker in certain respects, but so is the state. The PRI, the political party that dominated from the 1930s onward, lost power for the first time in 2000, and the federal government has never recovered the near-omnipotence it once enjoyed.

As a consequence, the traffickers no longer exist within a system administered by the federal government. Rather, both the state and organized crime are in a constant power struggle. Given that the PRI was an authoritarian entity, this loss of power is, on balance, a good thing, but one of the unfortunate side effects was the state?s growing incapacity to impose itself on organized crime.

? Insight Crime?researches, analyzes, and investigates organized crime in the Americas. Find all of Patrick Corcoran's research?here.

The Christian Science Monitor has assembled a diverse group of Latin America bloggers. Our guest bloggers are not employed or directed by the Monitor and the views expressed are the bloggers' own, as is responsibility for the content of their blogs. To contact us about a blogger, click here.

Source: http://rss.csmonitor.com/~r/feeds/csm/~3/Y2YnC4Z11Es/Looking-for-day-when-Mexico-s-underworld-is-violence-free-Try-looking-back

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Wednesday, April 3, 2013

The Daily Roundup for 04.01.2013

DNP The Daily RoundUp

You might say the day is never really done in consumer technology news. Your workday, however, hopefully draws to a close at some point. This is the Daily Roundup on Engadget, a quick peek back at the top headlines for the past 24 hours -- all handpicked by the editors here at the site. Click on through the break, and enjoy.

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Source: http://www.engadget.com/2013/04/01/the-daily-roundup-for-04-01-2013/

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Make The 'Conjuring' Trailer Go Away Please

A full trailer for James Wan's "The Conjuring" has appeared online, fleshing out the story more and scaring the ever-loving poop out of us once again. Also, Justing Long is "iSteve" in today's Dailies! » Is the trailer for "iSteve" supposed to be funny? [Funny or Die] » Full trailer for "The Conjuring" [Warner Bros] [...]

Source: http://moviesblog.mtv.com/2013/04/02/the-conjuring-trailer-2/

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Tuesday, April 2, 2013

Apple Brazil makes substantial price cuts on iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S

Apple Brazil cuts prices on iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S

It might not have the trademark, but that hasn't stopped Apple shaving the cost of its entry-level iPhone 4 and 4S' to something closer to its price tag in North America. The 16GB iPhone 4S is now R$1,699 ($840), down from R$1,999, while the 8GB flavor of the iPhone 4 now rings in at R$1,099 ($544), reduced from R$1,499. According to O Globo, if you're willing to pay upfront in full (and by phone) you can even snatch an extra 10 percent off both. Otherwise, Brazilians will need to visit the online store to lay claim to the heavily-discounted handsets.

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Via: Mac Rumors, O Globo (Portuguese)

Source: Apple Store (Brazil)

Source: http://feeds.engadget.com/~r/weblogsinc/engadget/~3/2gi93D0vqNs/

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Finally Home, a Veteran Enjoys a Special Easter | WNEP.com

Posted on: 6:17 pm, March 31, 2013, by Suzanne Goldklang, updated on: 08:16pm, March 31, 2013

MAYFIELD? For 2-year-old Anabelle Brummett and her 6-year-old sister Makayla, 2013 may be the best Easter ever

Their aunt Jenn Woznick is home after being away for 8 years in the army, and supper is at her place.

Woznick says ?My family, they were so excited when they knew I was coming home for good. It?s really nice. I feel very loved.?

It was a big day of firsts.

The first Easter together as a family, and Jenn?s first time hosting the holiday. Typically, sister Lisa Brady is the family?s ?top chef.?

?She is doin good pickin out the food. We?ll see how everybody likes it,? Brady says with a wink and a laugh.

This season of new beginnings has been a long time coming. Jenn?s military career started when she went to basic training as a high school junior. She travelled the world with stops in Asia, Europe and the Middle East.

Woznick recalls, ?In Iraq we decorated our office. I was sad because I wasn?t home with my family.?

She wasn?t the only one who felt like something was missing

Little Makayla says,?I really missed her.?

By noon on Sunday the ham was baking in the oven, the marshmellows on the sweet potatoes were ready to melt, but most of all Jenn was finally having Easter at home with her family.

Source: http://wnep.com/2013/03/31/finally-home-a-veteran-enjoys-a-special-easter/

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Monday, April 1, 2013

Stock market bull is feeding on corporate profits

Four years after pushing investors into one of the deepest financial holes in a century, the U.S. stock market is now powering ahead in one of the strongest bull markets in a half century.

So it?s no surprise many investors are wondering how much longer it can last.

Fueled by growing signs that the U.S. economy is finally repairing lingering damage from the Great Recession, stock prices have been making new highs for weeks.

On Thursday, the S&P 500 index closed at its highest level in history, after rising for 11 of the past 13 weeks. The Dow Jones industrial average, which tracks just 30 stocks, broke into record territory March 5 and has been setting new highs since. (Neither index, however, has reached a new high after adjusting for inflation.)

In the last 10 months, stocks have risen nearly 25 percent, as measured by the S&P 500 index. Since August, 2010, the broader Wilshire 5000 index has powered ahead by 50 percent ? a rally that?s created more than $6 trillion in wealth for U.S. households, corporations, pension funds and other institutional investors.

To some investors still shell-shocked from the 2008 financial collapse, it?s beginning to feel like October 2007 ? just before the bottom fell out. Or 2000, when the dot-com bubble popped.

Take a deep breath. Those worries are simply misplaced, according to none other than former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who coined the now-famous phrase for the telltale sign that a stock market party is getting out of hand.

"'Irrational exuberance' is the last term I'd use to characterize what?s going on at the moment,? the retired central banker recently told CNBC. ?It's got a ways to go as far as I can see.?

To be sure, bull markets inevitably include sharp pullbacks, as some investors take profits or others have second thoughts about the rally's staying power.

But for now, the millions of investors who are pouring billions of dollars into the stock market every week seem to agree with The Maestro. Here?s why:

So what got this party started?
Much like most market recoveries, the initial stage represented a snap back from one of the worst financial collapses since the Great Depression. Markets often act like a rubber band: If they get pulled too far in one direction, they tend to want to snap back to more ?normal? levels. The 2008 crash left stocks at deeply-depressed, bargain prices. But until the recovery was solidly in place, buyers had to be willing to bear the risk that the down cycle hadn't run its course.

In the last six months, the stock market rally has entered a new phase, driven largely by good news about the economy. The housing market has now bounced back sharply from the deepest recession in generations. Rising home prices have helped rebuild much of the multi-trillion dollar loss in household wealth that was obliterated by the collapse of 2008.

To be sure, it?s not all good news. The economy remains sluggish. Europe is struggling through a recession. The unemployment rate ? through steadily declining ? remains painfully high. Not all companies are taking part in the market rally.

Sorry: What makes stock prices go up and down again?
In the short term, supply and demand ? just like a pair of Red Sox tickets on Stubhub. When there are more buyers than sellers, the price goes up. And vice versa.

Over the longer run, demand for a given company?s stock is driven largely by its prospects for becoming more profitable. As any Red Sox season ticket holder knows, there?s a lot more demand for unused Fenway seats when the team is on a roll than when they?re losing.

As profits go up, so do stock prices. But to make money, you?ve got to own the stock before the company announces higher earnings.

That?s why investors are buying now ? based on the belief that the recent improvement in the economy will continue this year and next.

?I don't think it's all that surprising that the stock market would rise, given that there has been increased optimism about the economy,? the current Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, told reporters earlier this month. ?Profit increases have been substantial. And the relationship between stock prices and earnings is not particularly unusual at this point.?

But didn'tBernanke create this bubble by pumping trillions of dollars cash into the system?
The Fed?s unprecedented, ongoing easy-money policy has certainty had a lot to do with the surge in stock prices.

Ultra-low interest rates have helped two ways. Cheap credit helps boost economic growth; the housing recovery would have taken a lot longer without record low mortgage rates. Ultra-low rates on safer investments like bonds also force investors looking for higher returns by turning to riskier investments like stocks.

It?s a premature to call this rally a bubble. The late-90s Internet craze ?went bubble? when investors began paying Gold Rush prices for companies with no profits whatsoever. They were betting ? based on wildly optimistic forecasts about future growth ? that profits would eventually kick in. But in the end, it turned out that launching the fourth-largest online shopping site targeting left-handed golfers wasn?t a winning business model after all.

Ironically, some of the trends underlying those 1990s forecasts - of a millennial boom in entirely new online products and services ? are now helping boost corporate profits today. In many cases the predictions were right. They were just 20 years too early.

OK.Butif the economy is still weak, where are all these profits coming from?
One big source is workers? wages ? which have been falling, after adjusting for inflation. As business improves, more of that cash is heading straight to the corporate bottom line.

It?s not hard to see why. With unemployment still at 7.7 percent, few workers have leverage to demand a raise. Many companies have also been able to meet increased demand by asking their existing workers to put in more hours and check their email on weekends. Globalization continues to offer opportunities to outsource work to low-wage, overseas markets.

As the job market improves, and companies continue adding more full-time workers, that added profit may begin to slow. Higher health care costs could also take a bite. But for now, much of the revenue from new orders is flowing to the bottom line with little increase in labor costs.

Falling wages are only one of the tailwinds pushing profits ahead. Just as ultra-low interest rates have helped homeowners cut their monthly mortgage payments, companies have gotten a big break on borrowing costs. Those savings have helped boost the bottom lines of the companies in the S&P 500 index by some 4.5 percent, according to financial analyst Stephen Moore.

Moore figures lower corporate taxes ? which have fallen from about 30 percent of overall profits in the 1980s to around 20 percent today ? have added another 1 percent to profits.

We?d add to the list the ongoing savings from lower natural gas and electricity costs thanks to a boom in U.S. energy production.

So how long can all this last?
The only honest answer: No one knows. Including your investment adviser.

The recent recovery from a period of deep, financial malaise, though, is reminiscent of the 1980s emergence from the Great Inflation that destroyed thousands of businesses, trillions of dollars in financial assets and shredded consumer and investor confidence.

Then, for a variety of reasons, the economic storm subsided. In what seemed like a matter of months, it was Morning in America. The resulting stock market rally, which began in August 1982, was one of the longest on record.

To be sure, the over-caffeinated bull briefly passed out when a heart-stopping crash lopped 23 percent off stock prices in a single session on October 19, 1987. Four months later, though, the bull was back on his feet for another 12-year stampede that lifted stocks nearly seven-fold before the tech bubble burst in March 2000.

This bull faces formidable hurdles in the months and years ahead. The ongoing debt crisis in Europe and, worse, the bumbling response of its leaders, could easily spoil the party. So could the inevitable day, probably not until next year, when the Fed starts raising interest rates back to more normal levels. The Washington budget battle over reforming unsustainable federal spending (a problem with no shortage of viable solutions) could also knock the bull off its feet.

And if the gains in corporate profits stall out, investors could quickly lose their appetite for stocks. Until that happens, though, this rally looks like the real thing.

Source: http://feeds.nbcnews.com/c/35002/f/653351/s/2a2ffe78/l/0L0Snbcnews0N0Cbusiness0Ceconomywatch0Cstock0Emarket0Ebull0Efeeding0Ecorporate0Eprofits0E1C9133954/story01.htm

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Cowon D20 launches in Japan, keeps MP3 players alive 90 hours at a time

Cowon D20 launches in Japan, keeps MP3 players alive 90 hours at a time

There's no denying it: the MP3 player market is in free fall, and competitors often have to either go big or go home if they want to justify their work over the many smartphone alternatives. Cowon is still kicking, and the extreme battery life of its new D20 player may be a good explanation as to why. Along with 13 hours of video, it can play 90 hours of music on a charge -- enough that the tunes could blast non-stop through a long weekend. Not that the player will otherwise rock the boat, as it's still carrying a 2.5-inch, 320 x 240 resistive touchscreen, 8GB to 32GB of built-in storage, an SD card slot and Cowon's familiar (if hyper-stylized) interface. The company is partly counting on a low cost to get its foot in the door. Following a tease earlier this month in Russia, the D20 is launching in Japan at prices between ¥11,800 ($125) and ¥16,800 ($178) -- not a bad deal, so long as endurance rules your world.

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Via: Akihabara News

Source: Cowon

Source: http://feeds.engadget.com/~r/weblogsinc/engadget/~3/5bCXl6C8V8c/

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